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Markets/Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$79

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

6% / 10%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $79 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692285

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run bef: 17%, J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before: 15%, Josh Hawley announce a presidential run befor: 15%.

Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

8%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this