Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$31K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
36% / 38%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
37%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish…
2026
60 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Current
37% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/787480
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