Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$87K
Liquidity
$73K
Bid / Ask
58% / 60%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
59%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Resni.ca (Res) win the most seats in the 2026…
2026
51 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
56%
Mar 19, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +21.5pp
20% → 42%
Mar 18, 2026
Peak probability
66% YES — highest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Current
58% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $87K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/954519
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