Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Closes November 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$670
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…
2026
17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $670 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/919491
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.