Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$963
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
3% / 5%
Spread
2.10pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state…
2026
18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-8.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $963 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 2.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947243
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