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Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Closes April 12, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

35%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$15K

Liquidity

$83K

Bid / Ask

34% / 35%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next…

Full event →
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA
66%
the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame
35%
the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame
0%
the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame
0%

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

33% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

39% YES — highest in period

Mar 13, 2026

Current

35% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 35%99%
Buy YES@ 35¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 66¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/948038

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