Markets/Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:06 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

64%YES

37%NO

Volume 24h

$19K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

63% / 64%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

64%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next…

Full event →

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA

64%

the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame

36%

the most seats in the next South Australian p

the most seats in the next Hungarian parliame

the most seats in the next South Australian p

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

65% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: -6.0pp

66% → 60%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

64% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 64%99%

Buy YES@ 64¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 37¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?" at 64% YES / 36% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 64%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 64%, NO 36%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/948043