Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$52K
Liquidity
$57K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
38% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Trough probability
10% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: -8.0pp
41% → 33%
Mar 12, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1340115
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