ForecastMind
Markets/EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
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EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

57%YES
43%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$30K

Bid / Ask

56% / 58%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

57%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1747817

Outcome Markets32 markets

This event has 32 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 97%, Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after laun: 94%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

56% → 67%

Mar 28, 2026

Peak probability

69% YES — highest in period

Mar 29, 2026

Current

57% YES (-9.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 57%99%
Buy YES@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this