ForecastMind
Markets/EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?
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EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$27K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1747838

Outcome Markets32 markets

This event has 32 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 97%, Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after laun: 94%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-21.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Trough probability

19% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -18.5pp

41% → 22%

Mar 28, 2026

Current

19% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this