Iran leadership change by March 31?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$91K
Liquidity
$62K
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
34% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Biggest move: +15.0pp
14% → 28%
Mar 19, 2026
Current
7% YES (-2.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran leadership change by March 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $91K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran leadership change by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1535971
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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