Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$100K
Liquidity
$48K
Bid / Ask
56% / 57%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
56%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
April
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
65% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
40% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 21, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: -16.5pp
62% → 45%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
78% YES — highest in period
Mar 10, 2026
Current
61% YES (+10.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $100K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1517835
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