Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$233K
Liquidity
$91K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump announces end of military operations against…
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
71% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 3, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
57%
Mar 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
45%
Mar 10, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Mar 11, 2026
Biggest move: +28.0pp
30% → 57%
Mar 9, 2026
Current
13% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $233K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466575
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Correlated Markets
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