US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$753K
Liquidity
$79K
Bid / Ask
27% / 28%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
28%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
37% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +10.0pp
24% → 34%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
28% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $753K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1569627
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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