US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$289K
Liquidity
$97K
Bid / Ask
39% / 40%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
40%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
28% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 5, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 6, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 7, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
57%
Mar 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 11, 2026
Biggest move: +25.0pp
43% → 68%
Mar 9, 2026
Peak probability
83% YES — highest in period
Feb 28, 2026
Current
39% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $289K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1466016
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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