US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$89K
Liquidity
$98K
Bid / Ask
70% / 72%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
76%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
82% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Trough probability
67% YES — lowest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Biggest move: +6.5pp
71% → 78%
Mar 23, 2026
Current
77% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $89K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1571566
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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