US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$199K
Liquidity
$80K
Bid / Ask
50% / 51%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
61%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
87% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
40% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 15, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 16, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 17, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: -17.0pp
75% → 58%
Mar 3, 2026
Current
62% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $199K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 61%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484894
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