Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?
Closes April 6, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$94K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786323
This event has 39 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 62%, Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?: 35%, Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 31?: 22%.
Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
53% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
7% YES — lowest in period
Mar 30, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
11%
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -42.5pp
53% → 11%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
7% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this