Markets/Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:54 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

39%

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

17%

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

2% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947271