Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$28K
Bid / Ask
12% / 12%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of United…
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Current
12% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1343462
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