Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Closes May 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$120K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
42 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -9.3pp
10% → 1%
Mar 22, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $120K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on May 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/681389
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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