Markets/Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:41 AM UTC

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$18K

Liquidity

$59K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

10%

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +5.4pp

4% → 10%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-10.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly10.1%

½ Kelly5.1%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 10.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637003