Markets/Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:46 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

$135

Liquidity

$876

Bid / Ask

17% / 23%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

11% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -19.0pp

32% → 13%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

38% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

21% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 80¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $135 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693777