Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$58K
Liquidity
$359K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?
2028
77 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $58K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561979
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