Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28?

Data as of Mar 28, 2026, 04:11 AM UTC

Closes March 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$185K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 28?

March

Full event →

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-46.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 23, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 27, 2026

Biggest move: -35.5pp

61% → 26%

Mar 27, 2026

Peak probability

89% YES — highest in period

Mar 25, 2026

Current

4% YES (+2.8pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-3.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.6%

½ Kelly1.8%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $185K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1673002