Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

35%YES

65%NO

Volume 24h

$61K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

34% / 35%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

35%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and…

March

Full event →

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?

35%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

32%

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 23?

14%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 23?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23?

between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23?

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +18.6pp

26% → 44%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

44% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

35% YES (+4.6pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 35%99%

Buy YES@ 35¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?" at 35% YES / 65% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 35%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 35%, NO 65%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607585

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Venue Divergence

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