Ukraine & Russia
Ceasefire negotiations, territorial control, and NATO involvement.
Ukraine-Russia prediction markets cover ceasefire timelines, territorial control outcomes, and the probability of NATO intervention. Metaculus superforecasters with geopolitical expertise often disagree with Polymarket crowd estimates here, making the consensus signal particularly valuable.
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Search all Ukraine & Russia markets →politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
YES 1%NO 99%
Vol $295KEnds 3/31/2026
politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
YES 40%NO 61%
Vol $167KEnds 12/31/2026
politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 22%NO 79%
Vol $141KEnds 6/30/2026
politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
YES 8%NO 92%
Vol $139KEnds 4/30/2026
politics
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
YES 59%NO 42%
Vol $3KEnds 7/31/2026
sports
Warriors vs. Pistons
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $2.4MEnds 3/20/2026
politics
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
YES 0%NO 100%
Vol $1.7M
politics
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
YES 100%NO 0%
Vol $1.6MEnds 12/31/2026