Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.0pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
3% / 5%
Spread
2.50pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1282953
This event has 27 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this