ForecastMind
Markets/MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
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MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?

Closes July 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES
66%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

33% / 35%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

34%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1373744

Outcome Markets40 markets

This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?: 100%.

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?

34%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Current

34% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 34%99%
Buy YES@ 34¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 66¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this