MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Closes July 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
43% / 46%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
45%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1541748
This event has 40 active outcome markets. Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?: 100%, Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?: 100%.
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
45% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this