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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-34.4pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

March

Full event →
above $1,800 on March 23?
100%
above $1,900 on March 23?
100%
above $2,000 on March 23?
99%
above $1,800 on March 24?
99%
above $1,900 on March 24?
98%
above $2,000 on March 24?
96%
above $2,100 on March 23?
86%
above $2,100 on March 24?
71%
$2,400 in March?
30%
above $2,200 on March 24?
28%
above $2,200 on March 23?
13%
above $2,300 on March 24?
7%
above $2,400 on March 24?
3%
above $2,500 on March 24?
1%
above $2,300 on March 23?
1%
between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 23?
0%
between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23?
0%
above $2,600 on March 24?
0%
above $2,400 on March 23?
0%
above $2,700 on March 24?
0%
less than $1,800 on March 23?
0%
above $2,500 on March 23?
0%
above $2,800 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 23?
0%

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.3pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.6%
½ Kelly0.8%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628569

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