Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:58 PM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$44K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+5.3pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?

March

Full event →

29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

3% YES (-1.4pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%

½ Kelly8.3%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1688321

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