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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Trump say "Holy" or "Evil" during Address to the Nation?
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Will Trump say "Holy" or "Evil" during Address to the Nation?

Closed April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$92

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

44% / 65%

Spread

21.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Holy" or "Evil" during Address to the Nation?" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 21.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Trump say "Holy" or "Evil" during Address to the Nation?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819393

Outcome Markets27 markets

This event has 27 active outcome markets. Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nat: 97%, Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Addres: 92%, Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation: 92%.

Trump say "Holy" or "Evil" during Address to the Nation

55%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this