Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5?
Closed April 5, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.9% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$555K
Liquidity
$329K
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $555K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1846005
This event has 29 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5?: 100%.
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 5?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
2% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this