Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$31K
Liquidity
$380K
Bid / Ask
17% / 17%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?
2028
37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
17% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561230
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