Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$110K
Liquidity
$283K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?
2028
37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 19, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Biggest move: -48.0pp
49% → 1%
Mar 19, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $110K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561264
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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