EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
67% / 69%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
68%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
67% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Trough probability
50% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: -16.0pp
66% → 50%
Mar 20, 2026
Peak probability
84% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
70% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 61% YES / 39% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 68%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 61%, NO 39%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1592407
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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