Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$56K
Liquidity
$69K
Bid / Ask
71% / 72%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
72%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
79% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
57% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Biggest move: -16.5pp
81% → 64%
Mar 4, 2026
Current
72% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?" at 71% YES / 29% NO. In the last 24 hours, $56K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 71%, NO 29%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484915
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