Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Closes May 15, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$54K
Liquidity
$175K
Bid / Ask
44% / 45%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
45%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
April
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
63% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
42% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 20, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 21, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 23, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
45%
Mar 26, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: -19.0pp
70% → 51%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
77% YES — highest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Current
45% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484914
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