Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$43K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
78% / 80%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
79%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?
March 2026
22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
68%
Mar 12, 2026
Biggest move: +23.5pp
46% → 70%
Mar 12, 2026
Peak probability
92% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
80% YES (-2.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $43K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551490
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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