Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Closes April 15, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$83K
Liquidity
$53K
Bid / Ask
37% / 38%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?
April
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 20, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +9.0pp
22% → 31%
Mar 20, 2026
Current
38% YES (+8.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $83K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662802
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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