Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$17K
Liquidity
$68K
Bid / Ask
72% / 74%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
73%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Trump announces end of military operations against…
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
74% YES
Mar 9, 2026
Trough probability
63% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -17.5pp
81% → 63%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
87% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
73% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?" at 73% YES / 27% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 73%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 73%, NO 27%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1517836
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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