Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Closes September 20, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$525K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
0.80pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state…
2026
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Trough probability
7% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -10.0pp
21% → 11%
Mar 29, 2026
Peak probability
21% YES — highest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $525K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on September 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789953
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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