Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$27K
Liquidity
$99K
Bid / Ask
28% / 31%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
31%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/701496
This event has 26 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 76%, December 31, 2026: 65%, December 31, 2026: 50%.
Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Biggest move: +7.0pp
36% → 43%
Mar 4, 2026
Peak probability
46% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
31% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this