Markets/Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 12:22 PM UTC

Closes August 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

1% / 3%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Full event →

the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704352