Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$14K
Liquidity
$67K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Current
6% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601824
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Venue Divergence
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