Markets/Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 12:40 AM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$350K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential…

2028

Full event →

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

the 2028 US Presidential Election?

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559695