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Markets/Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$305K

Liquidity

$246K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

2028

Full event →
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
18%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%

37 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $305K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561241

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