Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$10K
Liquidity
$41K
Bid / Ask
38% / 40%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Current
40% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947268
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