Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?
Closes May 1, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$244
Bid / Ask
41% / 64%
Spread
23.00pp
Expert Signal
60%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
48% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: +21.0pp
52% → 73%
Mar 22, 2026
Peak probability
73% YES — highest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Current
62% YES (+9.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 23.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1667190
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